Politics, Open Source Warfare: IFTF 10 year forecast

politics

We continue our series reviewing key themes from The Institute for the Future’s latest 10 year forecast.  In this post, Politics: Open Source Warfare

The next theme we will be reviewing from the IFTF’s new 10 year forecast is that of Politics.

“Open source warfare leverages the tools and principles of social network technology to wage a new kind of warfare – sometimes called Fourth Generation warfare.”

The IFTF writes,

New model armies are changing the face of war and peace.  Non-institutional, non-state supported, these armies use network strategies to rapidly prototype their tools and tactics.  They learn from one another around the globe, raise their money and sell services in the market place, and focus on system disruption and meme warfare.  They are the face of the clash between traditional hieararchical institutions and a emerging network society, a clash that will spread across other domains.  In the coming decades they may catalyse resilience – or they may lead to political, social and economic auto-immune disorders worldwide.

Detailed sub-themes from this concept include:

  • New model armies: a new set of superempowered military actors – human and non-human, privately funded and thought state affiliation – exert influence beyond their size.
  • Meme warfare: using information and media to disrupt the so-called “soft infrastructure” in a battle for hearts and minds.
  • Open-source intelligence: a new discipline of intelligence focuses on open tools, resources and processes – including public media, Internet histories, and even public participants – to discern patterns of strategic importance.
  • Platforms for resilience: open-source intelligence, open-source simulations and models, and other cooperative tools help shift the focus of strategy from achieve stability to building a capacity to respond and adapt quickly.

One of HFP’s core research premise is that non-traditional actors will play an increasingly important role in both creating, and solving, new crises in the future.  Our work draws many of these themes together in specific humanitarian preparatory contexts, so it is thus quite rewarding to see similar streams of thought originating elsewhere.  This is a thread which we will continue to eagerly track.

Next in the series, Environment, The Blue Economy.

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